tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8396539239718442243.post3411362374901687857..comments2024-03-28T23:21:31.257-04:00Comments on self-portrait in the present sea journal: Lake Forest: mistaken identity: rapid intensification; warnedWebbhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16850431988375738943noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8396539239718442243.post-22250441700429730882021-08-30T09:20:04.200-04:002021-08-30T09:20:04.200-04:00Greetings from Perth, Webb.
Fifteen or twenty y... Greetings from Perth, Webb.<br /> Fifteen or twenty years ago, when I was a weather-obsessed North Carolinian, I remember Greg Fischel (a local weather guru) talking about how it wasn't unusual for a major hurricane to intensify rapidly from category three to category 5 and then collapse back to category three to begin the cycle anew. The cycle is driven (or maybe just indicated) by eye-wall replacement.<br /> Hurricane Katrina followed that pattern, as did (I think) Hurricane Andrew. The takeaway message I got was that if you had a cat 5 storm a day away, it would likely be weaker when it arrived, but when you had a cat 3 just offshore it was a good time to be scared. Don't take that as gospel, though, because it suggests that it might be okay to be complacent in the face of a cat 5 hurricane.<br /> Actually, I wouldn't want to be less than 30 feet ASL (at ground level) anywhere near a cat 3 or worse Hurricane. But that's just me - I've only been through little ones like Fran and Hugo and Floyd - and I've never been in a hurricane at the coast..<br />Cheers,<br />KenKenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03334374556478322063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8396539239718442243.post-91016327555006540602021-08-28T17:22:50.323-04:002021-08-28T17:22:50.323-04:00I didn't forget, but OK. My 95 year old aunt l...I didn't forget, but OK. My 95 year old aunt lives on Hilton Head. She's blind and pretty deaf now. But if she tells you to get on the bus with her, you better do it. Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09993593934190706668noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8396539239718442243.post-41473135806661457972021-08-28T15:33:05.510-04:002021-08-28T15:33:05.510-04:00You may have forgotten that I do not drive and hav...You may have forgotten that I do not drive and have no way to evacuate other than relying on others. I abhor relying on others. I expect that Hilton Head has some provision for evacuating the helpless, but for me being in an evacuation center in the control of others would be literally a fate worse than death. I have made all of my voyages prior to GANNET with no way to call for help. That I can via the Yellowbrick on GANNET is not my purpose for having the unit on board but an unintended consequence. Our condo is on the landward side of the island and less subject to direct ocean surge than the other side of the island five miles away. If I survive the storm itself, my years of living self-contained at sea will be relevant. I am probably about as experienced at that as anyone. I’m old. I’ve had a life. Maybe several. As always I will have prepared and be accepting of the part that chance plays in our lives.<br /><br />Of others, I would make no effort to influence them and it is likely that they would not even be aware that I was not evacuating. <br /><br />Few of my neighbors know I have sailed and only one or two have the least idea how much. To them I’m just another old guy who is unusual only because he gets around on a bicycle and is still slim.Webbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16850431988375738943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8396539239718442243.post-19909923510551797212021-08-28T14:29:17.087-04:002021-08-28T14:29:17.087-04:00I am disheartened by your comment that you wouldn&...I am disheartened by your comment that you wouldn't evacuate Hilton Head whatever the storm. I would have hoped that you would have lent an expert eye to the forecasts and made a judgment at the time. Homestead, Galveston and Gulfport were completely washed away, and the skills of being at sea would be irrelevant.<br /><br />Plus, I think your approach to things would have a great calming and motivating effect on others in your community less experienced, who might very well evacuate if you did or stay if you did not.<br /><br />Hope it never comes to that.<br /><br />Ernienoreply@blogger.com