Hilton Head Island: waiting

It is 1:30 on a gray afternoon.  Solid low overcast.  Wind at the airport three miles here, but more exposed, 35 mph, gusting 41.  I judge the wind on Skull Creek is about 18-20 knots.  NOAA thinks in mph.  I think in knots.  There are no waves on the slate gray creek, but there are whitecaps which is unusual.  When I walked down to GANNET three hours ago the wind was 17 knots.

We are now under a hurricane warning.  However, the latest NOAA GRIB shows the eye of the storm tracking farther east than in earlier ones and making landfall at Charleston rather than Hilton Head Island.

I brought back from GANNET two five gallon water jerry cans, the portable solar panel, and the JetBoil stove with five gas cartridges.  Halfway back to the condo I thought that I should have brought one or two of my solar lights.  I did not go back.  I have a flashlight here.

I have filled the bathtub with water.  I tried to fill three sinks with water, but their plugs let the water seep away.  The bathtub plug seems to be holding.  Bathtubs hold a lot of water.  I have filled the jerry cans with water.  As I was doing so I realized that I could fill them to the top, which I do not do on GANNET because of the motion underway.  These should remain quietly level unless the building comes down in which event water may not be my most immediate concern.

I do not expect Ian to be a major event on Hilton Head Island.  If the GRIBs are accurate we will see maximum sustained winds of around 30 knots, with gusts between 40 and 50 knots.  The eye of the storm should be closest at around noon tomorrow.  Unfortunately high tide on Skull Creek will also be around noon.  Ian could cause outages of electricity and water.  If so, I will be self-sufficient for at least a month and probably more.

I have been thinking about the difference between the wind speeds being reported and those shown on the GRIBs.  One of the parameters on the GRIBs is 'Wind Speed 10 meters Above Ground'.  It is possible that the highest winds are thousands or tens of thousands of meters higher.  I do not know that as a fact; it is my speculation.